Part of: Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,115.

Categories: Politics, Vance, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Trump, Kushner, Iran Ceasefire, rubio, Witkoff

Notable Trades

83% winner cross-market sharp

Sharp 83% lifetime bettor with strong profits and serial cross-market activity bought Yes on a relatively quiet US-Iran diplomacy market.

  • This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $427,695 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 42 events with $1.56M in flagged activity.
  • The buy is meaningful in a quiet market with only $2,414 traded in the last 24 hours.

$1,115 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 58615910, $2,492 (73% win rate)
  2. 0x645a...fd84 Outcome 58615910, $2,359 (63% win rate)
  3. 0x9952...2edb Outcome 58615910, $2,000
  4. 0xff4e...5502 Outcome 58615910, $1,963
  5. 0x6dd8...d4e7 Outcome 58615910, $1,715
  6. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 58615910, $1,616
  7. 0xff52...4546 Outcome 58615910, $1,500
  8. 0x9ca1...13b5 Outcome 58615910, $1,186 (59% win rate)
  9. 0xb9d2...fb68 Outcome 58615910, $1,000
  10. 0xa676...1c22 Outcome 58615910, $1,000 (44% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

ResolvedWho will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$1,115 tracked1 signalPoliticsVanceIranU.S. x IranGeopoliticsTrumpKushnerIran CeasefirerubioWitkoff

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

71d ago

$1,115 on Yes at 56¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
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Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…