Part of: Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?
This Polymarket prediction market asks whether the US-Iranian ceasefire will remain in effect through June 7 ET. It resolves “No” if the U.S. conducts a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the deadline and that action is officially confirmed or widely reported by credible sources. PolySpotter is tracking $7,765 in smart money activity, including recent alerts showing profitable bettors buying NO.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $24,408.
Categories: Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable cluster buying NO
Strong one-sided No flow from three wallets, including a highly profitable 80% winner, drove a major repricing in an Iran ceasefire market.
- A bettor with an 80% record and $2.3M lifetime profit bought heavily into No.
- Three wallets bought the same side within minutes, totaling $7.8K and pushing No from as low as 32¢ to 90¢.
- One wallet is a major cross-market trader with $4.3M deployed across 90 related markets.
$7,765 on No
Profitable 388-bet wallet
A high-volume geopolitical bettor with a 76% win record and positive lifetime P&L is adding a cross-market Yes position, though the signal is modest and the entry is slightly above current odds.
- This bettor has won 76% of 388 resolved bets and is up about $2.1K lifetime.
- They are positioning across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader ceasefire thesis.
- Entry at 81¢ implies they expect the ceasefire to hold despite the market now sitting near 78¢.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
88% winner cross-market thesis
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a $6.5k Yes position as part of a broader Iran ceasefire thesis across six related markets.
- This bettor has won 22 of 25 resolved trades and is profitable lifetime.
- They have $22.9k spread across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader ceasefire thesis.
- The $6.5k buy at 88¢ is a confident add in a market with tight odds and rising Yes momentum.
$6,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable wallet with a large cross-market Iran-event thesis bought Yes at 88¢, backed by $44k across five related markets and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor is up $442k lifetime across $5.6M traded.
- They have $44k positioned across five related Iran markets, suggesting a broader ceasefire thesis.
- They bought Yes at 88¢ as the market moved up 4 points in the last day.
$1,408 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
94% winner cross-market
Sharp 94% winner is building a cross-market ceasefire thesis, buying Yes at 88¢ as part of $44K across five related markets.
- This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved bets and is profitable lifetime.
- They have put $44K across five related markets, suggesting a broader ceasefire thesis.
- Buying Yes at 88¢ shows confidence even after the market moved up 5 points today.
$4,935 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp geopolitical bettor adding Yes
Sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and nearly $500k profit is buying Yes across related Iran ceasefire markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $495k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 4 related ceasefire markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying Yes at 90¢ shows confidence the ceasefire holds through June 7.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
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