Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

This prediction market tracks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran diplomatic agreement, peace framework, or extension of a ceasefire with Iran by 11:59 PM ET on May 23, 2027. PolySpotter is tracking $3,450 in smart money across 1 signal, including sharp buying in the Yes cluster.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $36,200.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Experienced profitable cross-market trader sold Yes, effectively buying No at 46¢, across a broader Iran-agreement thesis that has already moved in their favor.

  • This bettor has traded 90 related event markets and is up about $320K lifetime.
  • They are positioning across 3 markets in this event, totaling about $9.3K.
  • Selling Yes at 54¢ is equivalent to buying No at 46¢, and the market has already moved toward No.

$3,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%

96% winner in Yes cluster

Strong one-sided Yes flow with a 5-wallet cluster, major price impact, and a serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate.

  • A bettor who has won 96% of 1,600 resolved trades is part of this Yes move.
  • Five wallets put $17.1K on the same side, pushing Yes from the teens to 56¢.
  • Volume spiked 17x above normal, suggesting a coordinated rush into this outcome.

$17,094 on Yes

75% serial cross-market winner

A proven serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No, supported by a notable pre-event volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 1,170 markets and is up $169k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 99 events and $615k in tracked flow.
  • Bought No at 61¢ during a 17x volume spike, while the market now appears cheaper around 44¢.

$1,308 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Sharp cluster buying Yes

Four wallets, including a serial cross-market trader with a 96% historical hit rate, bought Yes into a 177x volume spike and moved the market sharply from the high teens to the low 40s.

  • A bettor who has won 96% of 1,600 resolved bets joined the Yes side.
  • Four wallets bought the same direction for $12.1K as volume spiked 177x.
  • The first buys were at 16–21¢ and the market has already jumped to about 42¢.

$12,094 on Yes

Profitable cross-market bettor

Experienced profitable cross-market trader with $329k lifetime profit is buying No on a geopolitics market, though the individual bet size is modest.

  • This bettor has won 62% of 851 resolved trades and is up about $330k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $512k deployed across 58 markets in 29 events.
  • Buying No at 81¢ signals confidence that no qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement lands by the deadline.

$1,018 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Proven cross-market sharp

Proven profitable cross-market bettor with a 75% record and $169k lifetime profit is buying No on a plausible geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $169k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 98 events and 198 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market approach.
  • This No buy is meaningful in a thin market, equal to about 26% of available liquidity.

$1,235 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $13,002 (57% win rate)
  2. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $10,294 (48% win rate)
  3. 0x162f...798d Yes, $9,947 (70% win rate)
  4. 0xd902...cdb9 Yes, $8,955 (63% win rate)
  5. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $8,398 (47% win rate)
  6. 0x488e...ea2e No, $8,017
  7. 0x6ffb...a834 Yes, $6,952 (96% win rate)
  8. 0xaeff...68db No, $6,710 (93% win rate)
  9. 0xbd04...fbb0 Yes, $5,386 (75% win rate)
  10. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $3,546 (62% win rate)

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US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

364dUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$36,200 tracked6 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran
Yes
38¢
No
62¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Price History — “No
79¢
65¢
51¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

48m ago

$3,450 on No at 46¢

46¢62¢16¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

1h ago

$17,094 on Yes at 56¢

56¢38¢18¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

1h ago

$1,308 on No at 61¢

61¢62¢1¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

1h ago

$12,094 on Yes at 21¢

21¢38¢17¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

2h ago

$1,018 on No at 81¢

81¢62¢19¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

2h ago

$1,235 on No at 79¢

79¢62¢17¢

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