Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran peace agreement, ceasefire framework, diplomatic agreement, or ceasefire extension by 11:59 PM ET on June 3, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,800 in smart money across 1 signal, with recent sharp-bettor alerts pointing toward “No.”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,200.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Sharp 88% winner buying No

Surface despite the low composite score because this is a proven profitable wallet buying No after a sharp Yes selloff in a high-volume Iran ceasefire market.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $4,656 lifetime.
  • They bought No at 68¢ after Yes fell 26 points in a day, aligning with recent market momentum.
  • The market is liquid with a tight 2¢ spread, so this looks like a copyable sharp-wallet entry rather than a random thin-market print.

$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

98% winner buying No

Sharp cross-market bettor with a 98% resolved win rate bought $5,000 of No after a major move against Yes.

  • This bettor has won 41 of 42 resolved trades and is profitable lifetime.
  • They are positioning across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • The market has already moved hard toward No, with Yes down 30 points over the past day.

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%

Perfect-record cross-market bettor

Sharp wallet with a perfect 30-0 resolved record is taking a cross-market No position on the Iran ceasefire/agreement event.

  • This bettor has won 30 of 30 resolved bets and is up $334K lifetime.
  • They have positioned across 5 related markets with over $103K in total exposure.
  • This trade adds $3.4K on No at 68¢ after Yes fell 25 points in the past day.

$3,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7c6a...0b8c Yes, $25,748 (67% win rate)
  2. 0x1eb8...0782 No, $8,382 (98% win rate)
  3. 0xf9c1...39e2 No, $5,000 (100% win rate)
  4. 0xbad2...5296 Yes, $4,000 (52% win rate)
  5. 0x43fb...5f89 No, $2,640 (88% win rate)
  6. 0xe8c4...395d No, $2,538 (97% win rate)
  7. 0x2c39...56dc No, $2,500 (56% win rate)
  8. 0x12d6...f2a8 No, $2,461 (48% win rate)
  9. 0x8a98...1b92 Yes, $2,283 (51% win rate)
  10. 0x8ca9...439b No, $1,715

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade stays in place

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Iran peace date arbitrage

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No Iran deal by June

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Iran uranium deal in May

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No Iran deal or extension

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Iran closes airspace in May

Covers 3 related markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

5dUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$10,200 tracked3 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran
Yes
31¢
No
70¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Price History — “No
70¢
54¢
38¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

1h ago

$1,800 on No at 68¢

68¢70¢2¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

1h ago

$5,000 on No at 68¢

68¢70¢2¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

2h ago

$3,400 on No at 68¢

68¢70¢2¢

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