Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,981.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
A highly profitable, high-volume wallet is taking a low-priced Yes position as part of a $30k thesis spread across six related Iran markets.
- This active bettor is up $1.2M lifetime across more than $81M traded.
- They have positioned nearly $30k across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 7¢ is a cheap longshot that could reprice sharply if ceasefire-extension news emerges.
$1,620 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%
New repeat bettor buying NO
A 6-day-old repeat large bettor is backing No with $1.9k near the June 3 deadline, with market momentum already moving against Yes.
- This 6-day-old wallet has now made 3 flagged large bets totaling $4.8k.
- They bought $1.9k of No at 89¢ while Yes is down 11 points over the last day.
- The market resolves in about 3 days, where a timely geopolitical information edge is plausible.
$1,879 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% long-run record is buying No while also positioning across five related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor has won 75% of 1,215 resolved bets and is up $171K lifetime.
- They are positioned across 5 related markets in this event with nearly $23K at stake.
- Buying No at 88¢ follows a 10-point daily drop in Yes, reinforcing the market’s move against an agreement.
$1,787 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Serial macro bettor, 75% wins
A proven 75% lifetime bettor with extensive cross-market history is adding a No position as part of a broader Iran-agreement thesis.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 1,215 markets and is up $171K lifetime.
- They have traded 214 markets across 103 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- This is part of a broader same-event position: 5 related markets totaling about $23K.
$1,783 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Perfect-record bettor trimming No
A very strong historical wallet is reducing a prior No position, but this looks more like profit-taking than a clean new Yes bet.
- This bettor has won 41 of 41 resolved bets and is up $211K lifetime.
- They sold $8.2K of No after entering around 68¢, suggesting reduced confidence in No at higher prices.
- This is a weaker copy signal because it appears to close an existing position rather than open a fresh bet.
$8,160 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Serial cross-market winner
Proven high-volume cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is adding to a broader No thesis across four related markets.
- This bettor has won 74% of 1,209 resolved bets and is up about $171K lifetime.
- They are positioned across 4 related markets with about $20.7K behind the same event thesis.
- The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 16 points over the past day.
$1,097 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
98% winner buying No
Sharp 98% winner with positive lifetime P&L is adding a cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis by buying No at 83¢.
- This bettor has won 42 of 43 resolved trades and is up $13.3K lifetime.
- They have placed $13.1K across 4 related Iran ceasefire markets, pointing to a clear No thesis.
- Entry at 83¢ follows a sharp 1-day move toward No, with Yes down 19 points.
$2,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
Cross-market Iran bettor
Moderately interesting because a profitable wallet has built a large cross-market Iran thesis and is now buying No after a sharp move lower in Yes odds.
- This bettor has placed $272K across 12 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up about $46.6K across 413 resolved bets.
- They bought No at 70¢ while Yes odds are down 13 points today, aligning with market momentum.
$1,096 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
Cross-market Iran thesis
A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broad cross-market Iran thesis, converting this trade into a Yes buy at 32¢ despite recent weakness.
- This trader has placed $272k across 12 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The wallet is up $46k lifetime across more than 400 resolved bets, though its win rate is only 51%.
- Selling No at 68¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 32¢ after the market fell 11% over the last day.
$1,332 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Profitable cross-market Iran trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a broader Iran-event thesis, buying $3,000 of No at 60¢ after $36,841 across seven related markets.
- This bettor has a long track record: 62% wins across 867 resolved bets and $349k in profit.
- This is part of a broader thesis, with $36,841 placed across seven related Iran markets.
- Entry at 60¢ suggests they see No as the stronger side despite an active, liquid market.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Top Holders
- 0xefbd...8086 — Outcome 67458742, $20,000
- 0x4934...5951 — Outcome 67458742, $9,971
- 0x73e3...3239 — Outcome 67458742, $7,749 (95% win rate)
- 0xc884...e17e — Outcome 67458742, $3,977 (100% win rate)
- 0xdcdd...73a5 — Outcome 67458742, $3,387 (69% win rate)
- 0x0099...386e — Outcome 67458742, $2,991 (58% win rate)
- 0xd109...6fa0 — Outcome 67458742, $2,555 (78% win rate)
- 0xf3fb...b340 — Outcome 67458742, $2,422 (53% win rate)
- 0x48ed...33be — Outcome 67458742, $2,359
- 0xd640...480c — Outcome 67458742, $2,093 (39% win rate)
Related Theses
US-Iran deal lands mid-June
Covers 7 related markets
Iran deal arrives in June
Covers 9 related markets
Hormuz blockade lifted in June
Covers 5 related markets
Iran peace deal comes early
Covers 11 related markets
No Iran peace deal
Covers 4 related markets
Iran uranium surrender in May
Covers 3 related markets
