Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

15 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,981.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

A highly profitable, high-volume wallet is taking a low-priced Yes position as part of a $30k thesis spread across six related Iran markets.

  • This active bettor is up $1.2M lifetime across more than $81M traded.
  • They have positioned nearly $30k across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Entry at 7¢ is a cheap longshot that could reprice sharply if ceasefire-extension news emerges.

$1,620 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%

New repeat bettor buying NO

A 6-day-old repeat large bettor is backing No with $1.9k near the June 3 deadline, with market momentum already moving against Yes.

  • This 6-day-old wallet has now made 3 flagged large bets totaling $4.8k.
  • They bought $1.9k of No at 89¢ while Yes is down 11 points over the last day.
  • The market resolves in about 3 days, where a timely geopolitical information edge is plausible.

$1,879 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% long-run record is buying No while also positioning across five related Iran agreement markets.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 1,215 resolved bets and is up $171K lifetime.
  • They are positioned across 5 related markets in this event with nearly $23K at stake.
  • Buying No at 88¢ follows a 10-point daily drop in Yes, reinforcing the market’s move against an agreement.

$1,787 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Serial macro bettor, 75% wins

A proven 75% lifetime bettor with extensive cross-market history is adding a No position as part of a broader Iran-agreement thesis.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 1,215 markets and is up $171K lifetime.
  • They have traded 214 markets across 103 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
  • This is part of a broader same-event position: 5 related markets totaling about $23K.

$1,783 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Perfect-record bettor trimming No

A very strong historical wallet is reducing a prior No position, but this looks more like profit-taking than a clean new Yes bet.

  • This bettor has won 41 of 41 resolved bets and is up $211K lifetime.
  • They sold $8.2K of No after entering around 68¢, suggesting reduced confidence in No at higher prices.
  • This is a weaker copy signal because it appears to close an existing position rather than open a fresh bet.

$8,160 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Serial cross-market winner

Proven high-volume cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is adding to a broader No thesis across four related markets.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 1,209 resolved bets and is up about $171K lifetime.
  • They are positioned across 4 related markets with about $20.7K behind the same event thesis.
  • The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 16 points over the past day.

$1,097 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

98% winner buying No

Sharp 98% winner with positive lifetime P&L is adding a cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis by buying No at 83¢.

  • This bettor has won 42 of 43 resolved trades and is up $13.3K lifetime.
  • They have placed $13.1K across 4 related Iran ceasefire markets, pointing to a clear No thesis.
  • Entry at 83¢ follows a sharp 1-day move toward No, with Yes down 19 points.

$2,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%

Cross-market Iran bettor

Moderately interesting because a profitable wallet has built a large cross-market Iran thesis and is now buying No after a sharp move lower in Yes odds.

  • This bettor has placed $272K across 12 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
  • The wallet is profitable overall, up about $46.6K across 413 resolved bets.
  • They bought No at 70¢ while Yes odds are down 13 points today, aligning with market momentum.

$1,096 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%

Cross-market Iran thesis

A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broad cross-market Iran thesis, converting this trade into a Yes buy at 32¢ despite recent weakness.

  • This trader has placed $272k across 12 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • The wallet is up $46k lifetime across more than 400 resolved bets, though its win rate is only 51%.
  • Selling No at 68¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 32¢ after the market fell 11% over the last day.

$1,332 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

Profitable cross-market Iran trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a broader Iran-event thesis, buying $3,000 of No at 60¢ after $36,841 across seven related markets.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 62% wins across 867 resolved bets and $349k in profit.
  • This is part of a broader thesis, with $36,841 placed across seven related Iran markets.
  • Entry at 60¢ suggests they see No as the stronger side despite an active, liquid market.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Top Holders

  1. 0xefbd...8086 Outcome 67458742, $20,000
  2. 0x4934...5951 Outcome 67458742, $9,971
  3. 0x73e3...3239 Outcome 67458742, $7,749 (95% win rate)
  4. 0xc884...e17e Outcome 67458742, $3,977 (100% win rate)
  5. 0xdcdd...73a5 Outcome 67458742, $3,387 (69% win rate)
  6. 0x0099...386e Outcome 67458742, $2,991 (58% win rate)
  7. 0xd109...6fa0 Outcome 67458742, $2,555 (78% win rate)
  8. 0xf3fb...b340 Outcome 67458742, $2,422 (53% win rate)
  9. 0x48ed...33be Outcome 67458742, $2,359
  10. 0xd640...480c Outcome 67458742, $2,093 (39% win rate)

Related Theses

US-Iran deal lands mid-June

Covers 7 related markets

Iran deal arrives in June

Covers 9 related markets

Hormuz blockade lifted in June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal comes early

Covers 11 related markets

No Iran peace deal

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Iran uranium surrender in May

Covers 3 related markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

ResolvedUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$39,981 tracked15 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

47d ago

$1,620 on Yes at 7¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

47d ago

$1,879 on No at 89¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

47d ago

$1,787 on No at 88¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

48d ago

$1,783 on No at 86¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

48d ago

$8,160 on Yes at 21¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

48d ago

$1,097 on No at 84¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

48d ago

$2,900 on No at 83¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

49d ago

$1,096 on No at 70¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

49d ago

$1,332 on Yes at 32¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

49d ago

$3,000 on No at 60¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

51d ago

$1,909 on Yes at 48¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

51d ago

$3,218 on No at 60¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

51d ago

$1,800 on No at 68¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

51d ago

$5,000 on No at 68¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

51d ago

$3,400 on No at 68¢

Related Theses