Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

This Polymarket market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran diplomatic agreement, peace framework, or extension of a ceasefire halting direct military engagement by May 23, 2027. PolySpotter is tracking $3,079 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, with recent alerts showing both Yes and No buying from profitable clusters.

23 smart money signals detected, totaling $83,369.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

96% serial cross-market bettor

Surfacing because this is a proven serial cross-market bettor with a 96% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L buying No on a geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has won 96% of 1,600 resolved markets and is up $269K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 556 markets with $3.5M in tracked event trades.
  • The bet backs No at 88¢, matching the market’s current favorite while adding $3.1K of conviction.

$3,079 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 68% win rate and $769K lifetime profit bought No during a 10x volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 68% of resolved trades and is up $769K lifetime.
  • They have traded 135 markets across 89 events, suggesting a repeatable event-trading edge.
  • Market activity is 10.3x above normal while they are backing No at 84¢.

$2,489 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable sharp buying longshot Yes

Sharp wallet with a 75% record and nearly $100k profit bought Yes on a high-volume Iran ceasefire-extension market during a volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 52 resolved trades and is up $99k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 18¢, implying a longshot view with about 4.6x upside if it resolves correctly.
  • Market activity is surging, with volume running 10x above its historical pace.

$1,108 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet with a long serial cross-market history is buying No on a geopolitics market, though the individual bet size is modest versus market volume.

  • This bettor is up $769K lifetime across 865 resolved markets.
  • They have traded 134 markets across 88 events, showing a repeated cross-market thesis pattern.
  • Bought No at 81¢, implying they see limited chance of a qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement.

$1,205 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable sharp buying YES

A proven profitable wallet with a 76% record across 140 resolved bets is effectively buying Yes at 20¢ on the Iran agreement/ceasefire market.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $18.9K lifetime.
  • They beat average market odds by 18 percentage points across 140 resolved bets.
  • Selling No at 80¢ is the same as buying Yes at 20¢, a ~5x payout if the announcement happens.

$5,488 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%

Profitable sharp fading Yes

A proven profitable wallet with a 75% resolved-bet win rate is fading a U.S.–Iran agreement announcement by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 87¢.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $99k lifetime.
  • They are betting against a U.S.–Iran announcement, effectively buying No at 87¢.
  • The wallet has 52 resolved bets, so the track record is meaningful despite this being a single trade.

$1,534 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is backing No as part of an $18k multi-market thesis on the same Iran event.

  • This bettor is up $320k over 1,135 resolved markets, with a 57% win record across heavy volume.
  • They have $18k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
  • Selling Yes at 15¢ is effectively buying No at 85¢, backing no qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement by the deadline.

$1,148 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%

97% serial cross-market bettor

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 97% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought nearly $10k of No on a geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has won 97% of 1,005 resolved trades and is up $45k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 59 events and nearly $398k in tracked cross-market volume.
  • A $9.8k buy at 81¢ shows clear confidence that no qualifying U.S.–Iran announcement happens by the deadline.

$9,764 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

88% serial cross-market bettor

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% record and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved bets and is profitable across 24 outcomes.
  • They have traded 47 markets across 25 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • Entry at 77¢ on No aligns with current market pricing but comes from a wallet worth tracking.

$1,279 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $326k lifetime P&L is taking a No position as part of a broader Iran-event thesis, though the individual bet is modest and price has moved against entry.

  • This bettor is up $326k across 851 resolved markets.
  • They repeatedly trade related event markets, with 61 markets across 30 events tracked.
  • Bought No at 73¢, implying strong confidence this announcement does not happen by the deadline.

$1,061 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Top Holders

  1. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 91589887, $13,954 (80% win rate)
  2. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 91589887, $8,400
  3. 0x4178...fbcb Outcome 91589887, $5,000
  4. 0x7df6...ac3b Outcome 91589887, $5,000
  5. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 91589887, $4,636 (45% win rate)
  6. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 91589887, $4,127 (87% win rate)
  7. 0xc77b...a526 Outcome 91589887, $3,310
  8. 0x8c75...6f44 Outcome 91589887, $2,634
  9. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 91589887, $2,216 (71% win rate)
  10. 0x72f7...92f7 Outcome 91589887, $1,900 (51% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal arrives mid-June

Covers 6 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

Iran deal timing arbitrage

Covers 9 related markets

No Iran deal by June

Covers 6 related markets

Iran agreement comes early June

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

US-Iran meeting in late May

Covers 7 related markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

353dUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$83,369 tracked23 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Price History — “No
78¢
64¢
51¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$3,079 on No at 88¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$2,489 on No at 84¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,108 on Yes at 18¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,205 on No at 81¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$5,488 on Yes at 20¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,534 on No at 87¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,148 on No at 85¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$9,764 on No at 81¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,279 on No at 77¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,061 on No at 73¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$3,618 on No at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$3,183 on Yes at 24¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 22¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,739 on No at 78¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$6,324 on No at 69¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,023 on No at 61¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,129 on Yes at 39¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$3,450 on No at 46¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$17,094 on Yes at 56¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,308 on No at 61¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$12,094 on Yes at 21¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,018 on No at 81¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

11d ago

$1,235 on No at 79¢

Related Theses