Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?
This Polymarket market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran diplomatic agreement, peace framework, or extension of a ceasefire halting direct military engagement by May 23, 2027. PolySpotter is tracking $3,079 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, with recent alerts showing both Yes and No buying from profitable clusters.
23 smart money signals detected, totaling $83,369.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
96% serial cross-market bettor
Surfacing because this is a proven serial cross-market bettor with a 96% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L buying No on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 96% of 1,600 resolved markets and is up $269K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 556 markets with $3.5M in tracked event trades.
- The bet backs No at 88¢, matching the market’s current favorite while adding $3.1K of conviction.
$3,079 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 68% win rate and $769K lifetime profit bought No during a 10x volume spike.
- This bettor wins 68% of resolved trades and is up $769K lifetime.
- They have traded 135 markets across 89 events, suggesting a repeatable event-trading edge.
- Market activity is 10.3x above normal while they are backing No at 84¢.
$2,489 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable sharp buying longshot Yes
Sharp wallet with a 75% record and nearly $100k profit bought Yes on a high-volume Iran ceasefire-extension market during a volume spike.
- This bettor has won 75% of 52 resolved trades and is up $99k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 18¢, implying a longshot view with about 4.6x upside if it resolves correctly.
- Market activity is surging, with volume running 10x above its historical pace.
$1,108 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet with a long serial cross-market history is buying No on a geopolitics market, though the individual bet size is modest versus market volume.
- This bettor is up $769K lifetime across 865 resolved markets.
- They have traded 134 markets across 88 events, showing a repeated cross-market thesis pattern.
- Bought No at 81¢, implying they see limited chance of a qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement.
$1,205 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable sharp buying YES
A proven profitable wallet with a 76% record across 140 resolved bets is effectively buying Yes at 20¢ on the Iran agreement/ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $18.9K lifetime.
- They beat average market odds by 18 percentage points across 140 resolved bets.
- Selling No at 80¢ is the same as buying Yes at 20¢, a ~5x payout if the announcement happens.
$5,488 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%
Profitable sharp fading Yes
A proven profitable wallet with a 75% resolved-bet win rate is fading a U.S.–Iran agreement announcement by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 87¢.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $99k lifetime.
- They are betting against a U.S.–Iran announcement, effectively buying No at 87¢.
- The wallet has 52 resolved bets, so the track record is meaningful despite this being a single trade.
$1,534 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is backing No as part of an $18k multi-market thesis on the same Iran event.
- This bettor is up $320k over 1,135 resolved markets, with a 57% win record across heavy volume.
- They have $18k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Selling Yes at 15¢ is effectively buying No at 85¢, backing no qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement by the deadline.
$1,148 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%
97% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 97% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought nearly $10k of No on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 97% of 1,005 resolved trades and is up $45k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 59 events and nearly $398k in tracked cross-market volume.
- A $9.8k buy at 81¢ shows clear confidence that no qualifying U.S.–Iran announcement happens by the deadline.
$9,764 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
88% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% record and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved bets and is profitable across 24 outcomes.
- They have traded 47 markets across 25 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 77¢ on No aligns with current market pricing but comes from a wallet worth tracking.
$1,279 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $326k lifetime P&L is taking a No position as part of a broader Iran-event thesis, though the individual bet is modest and price has moved against entry.
- This bettor is up $326k across 851 resolved markets.
- They repeatedly trade related event markets, with 61 markets across 30 events tracked.
- Bought No at 73¢, implying strong confidence this announcement does not happen by the deadline.
$1,061 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Top Holders
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 91589887, $13,954 (80% win rate)
- 0xee67...67a6 — Outcome 91589887, $8,400
- 0x4178...fbcb — Outcome 91589887, $5,000
- 0x7df6...ac3b — Outcome 91589887, $5,000
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 91589887, $4,636 (45% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 91589887, $4,127 (87% win rate)
- 0xc77b...a526 — Outcome 91589887, $3,310
- 0x8c75...6f44 — Outcome 91589887, $2,634
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 91589887, $2,216 (71% win rate)
- 0x72f7...92f7 — Outcome 91589887, $1,900 (51% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal arrives mid-June
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Iran keeps airspace open
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Iran deal timing arbitrage
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No Iran deal by June
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Iran agreement comes early June
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Iran ceasefire will hold
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US-Iran meeting in late May
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