Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026. It covers reported arrivals of container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, and resolves Yes if the threshold is met on any qualifying date. PolySpotter is tracking $1,478 in smart money activity, including recent linked-wallet buying on No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
26 smart money signals detected, totaling $122,485.
Categories: ships, Economy, Iran Ceasefire, transit, Iran, Politics, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
97% winner buying YES
A high-win-rate wallet with positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes despite only a weak new-wallet repeat signal.
- This bettor has won 97% of resolved trades and is up $10.3K lifetime.
- They are buying Yes at 82¢ after the market fell 6% this week.
- The wallet has been flagged 7 times historically, suggesting repeat notable activity.
$1,478 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
7-wallet funded cluster
A wallet from a 7-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the single trade is modest relative to market liquidity.
- A 7-wallet group sharing the same funder is positioned around this market.
- This wallet is adding to an existing No bet, now with about $19.2k committed at roughly 40–42¢.
- The market has moved toward No recently, with Yes down 4 points today and 7 points this week.
$1,540 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
7-wallet funded cluster
A wallet from a 7-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the single trade is modest relative to market liquidity.
- A 7-wallet group sharing the same funder is positioned around this market.
- This wallet is adding to an existing No bet, now with about $19.2k committed at roughly 40–42¢.
- The market has moved toward No recently, with Yes down 4 points today and 7 points this week.
$3,304 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
- They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.
$1,092 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
- They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.
$2,870 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
97% winner buying YES
A high-win-rate wallet with positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes despite only a weak new-wallet repeat signal.
- This bettor has won 97% of resolved trades and is up $10.3K lifetime.
- They are buying Yes at 82¢ after the market fell 6% this week.
- The wallet has been flagged 7 times historically, suggesting repeat notable activity.
$1,640 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Profitable wallets adding to NO
Three profitable, high-volume wallets are leaning No, with two of them adding to already sizable No positions on a geopolitically sensitive market.
- Three wallets put $7.1K behind No in the same short window.
- Two of the bettors are adding to existing No positions worth over $115K combined.
- The lead wallet has 887 resolved trades and is up $72K lifetime.
$38,170 on No
90% win-rate serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and +$334k P&L bought $8k of No at 19¢.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $334k lifetime.
- They have traded across 39 events with $316k in cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven approach.
- The $8k No buy at 19¢ goes against the market’s 80% Yes pricing and offers about 5x payout if right.
$8,045 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Proven winner re-enters YES
Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win record and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market already trading at 81¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $19.7k lifetime.
- They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying back in at 81¢.
- The market has strong recent momentum, with Yes up 7.5 points in the past day.
$2,962 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
- They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.
$2,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0x6139...6b7a — No, $417,382 (71% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $195,772 (64% win rate)
- 0xce1d...1b9b — Yes, $115,000 (61% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $102,638 (69% win rate)
- 0x1a3f...6dea — No, $83,494 (47% win rate)
- 0x801d...d8e0 — Yes, $61,347 (72% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — No, $60,091 (68% win rate)
- 0xe472...e7eb — Yes, $57,334 (82% win rate)
- 0x9c26...74bc — Yes, $45,000 (93% win rate)
- 0x32d9...d638 — No, $42,005
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