Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the next formal senior-level round of diplomatic or peace talks between U.S. and Iranian representatives will begin by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It follows the June 22 Switzerland talks, where mediators reported progress toward a roadmap and expected follow-on technical discussions. PolySpotter is tracking $1,541 in smart money and 1 signal, with recent smart-money activity including a profitable trader buying No.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,327.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

77% winner buying No

Sharp wallet override: a 77% lifetime winner with positive P&L is buying No despite only a modest cross-market signal.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $15.2K lifetime.
  • They have placed $4.7K across two related markets, suggesting a broader view on this event.
  • Buying No at 55¢ means they are betting the meeting is less likely than the current market implies.

$1,541 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable serial event trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 78% resolved win rate and $184k profit bought Yes, though the market has since retraced well below their entry.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up about $185k lifetime.
  • They are a serial event trader across 56 events and 76 markets, with over $620k deployed in this pattern.
  • They bought Yes at 56¢ before a rapid move, but the market has since fallen to around 32¢.

$1,353 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Profitable serial macro trader

A profitable, highly active cross-market trader bought Yes before a sharp move from 20¢ to 44¢ on a geopolitically plausible market.

  • This bettor has traded 108 markets across 56 events and is up $212K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 20¢ before the market quickly jumped to 44¢.
  • The market is moving hard, with Yes up 30 points in the last day amid active diplomatic headlines.

$1,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 55%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying Yes on a plausible near-term diplomatic-talks market at 37¢.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 434 resolved bets and is up $245k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 102 events, with $8.6M previously deployed.
  • Buying Yes at 37¢ implies they see the meeting odds as meaningfully underpriced.

$1,387 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0x4478...02a4 No, $10,000 (57% win rate)
  2. 0x79d9...baec No, $9,000 (91% win rate)
  3. 0x4cbe...100a Yes, $8,307 (92% win rate)
  4. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $7,432 (77% win rate)
  5. 0x7c3d...5c6b No, $6,000 (48% win rate)
  6. 0xd426...334a No, $5,782 (43% win rate)
  7. 0x0c18...a04c Yes, $5,584 (29% win rate)
  8. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $5,560 (34% win rate)
  9. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $5,380 (61% win rate)
  10. 0x60a9...5a71 Yes, $5,294 (49% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal likely soon

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Iran closes airspace late June

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Trump lifts Hormuz blockade

Covers 5 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 10 related markets

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Covers 3 related markets

Iran deal unlikely soon

Covers 9 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

US-Iran deal timing arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

9dNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$5,327 tracked4 signalsPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
32¢
No
68¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
89¢
60¢
30¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

1d ago

$1,541 on No at 55¢

55¢68¢13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

2d ago

$1,353 on Yes at 56¢

56¢32¢24¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

3d ago

$1,046 on Yes at 20¢

20¢32¢12¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

7d ago

$1,387 on Yes at 37¢

37¢32¢5¢

Related Theses