Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran peace agreement, ceasefire framework, diplomatic agreement, or ceasefire extension by 11:59 PM ET on June 3, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,800 in smart money across 1 signal, with recent sharp-bettor alerts pointing toward “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,200.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Sharp 88% winner buying No
Surface despite the low composite score because this is a proven profitable wallet buying No after a sharp Yes selloff in a high-volume Iran ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $4,656 lifetime.
- They bought No at 68¢ after Yes fell 26 points in a day, aligning with recent market momentum.
- The market is liquid with a tight 2¢ spread, so this looks like a copyable sharp-wallet entry rather than a random thin-market print.
$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
98% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with a 98% resolved win rate bought $5,000 of No after a major move against Yes.
- This bettor has won 41 of 42 resolved trades and is profitable lifetime.
- They are positioning across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The market has already moved hard toward No, with Yes down 30 points over the past day.
$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
Perfect-record cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with a perfect 30-0 resolved record is taking a cross-market No position on the Iran ceasefire/agreement event.
- This bettor has won 30 of 30 resolved bets and is up $334K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 5 related markets with over $103K in total exposure.
- This trade adds $3.4K on No at 68¢ after Yes fell 25 points in the past day.
$3,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x7c6a...0b8c — Yes, $25,748 (67% win rate)
- 0x1eb8...0782 — No, $8,382 (98% win rate)
- 0xf9c1...39e2 — No, $5,000 (100% win rate)
- 0xbad2...5296 — Yes, $4,000 (52% win rate)
- 0x43fb...5f89 — No, $2,640 (88% win rate)
- 0xe8c4...395d — No, $2,538 (97% win rate)
- 0x2c39...56dc — No, $2,500 (56% win rate)
- 0x12d6...f2a8 — No, $2,461 (48% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $2,408 (47% win rate)
- 0x8a98...1b92 — Yes, $2,303 (51% win rate)
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