Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,774.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Cross-market diplomacy bettor
Wallet is expressing a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis across five related markets, though its long-term edge is modest.
- This wallet has placed about $90k across five related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader diplomacy thesis.
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 20¢ while the market is up 6 points today.
- The wallet is profitable over 404 resolved bets, with about $48k in lifetime gains.
$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Profitable cross-market geopolitics trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is unwinding a No position across a US-Iran diplomacy event, with market odds already moving toward Yes.
- This bettor has a long track record: 647 resolved trades, 61% wins, and $218K in lifetime profit.
- They have traded 7 related markets on this event with $52.9K total exposure, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- Selling No at 83¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 17¢, and Yes has already moved up 8 points today.
$3,863 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a long history is building a $52.7k same-event position, including $3.7k on No at 79¢.
- This bettor has a long track record: 647 resolved bets, 61% winners, and $220k lifetime profit.
- They are active across this event, with $52.7k spread over 7 related markets.
- Buying No at 79¢ suggests conviction that a US-Iran meeting is unlikely by the deadline.
$3,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Multi-market geopolitical bettor
Moderately interesting because a profitable high-volume trader is building a broader US-Iran thesis across five related markets, though their track record is not especially sharp.
- This trader has put $89.6K across five related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader diplomatic-risk thesis.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up $41.3K across more than $9.1M in invested volume.
- This entry backs No at 78¢, implying they think a US-Iran meeting remains unlikely despite active market volume.
$3,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
Cross-market diplomacy bettor
A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis across 5 related markets, with this trade effectively buying Yes at 22¢.
- This wallet has put $88k across 5 related US-Iran diplomacy markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The bettor is up $41.7k lifetime across 393 resolved markets, though their 51% win rate is not especially sharp.
- Selling No at 78¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 22¢, matching the market’s current price.
$1,891 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 11575617, $24,191 (69% win rate)
- 0x9430...c2e6 — Outcome 11575617, $2,960
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 11575617, $2,179 (46% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 11575617, $2,000 (79% win rate)
- 0x249a...fd65 — Outcome 11575617, $1,400
- 0x48ee...008c — Outcome 11575617, $1,129 (38% win rate)
- 0xdc36...8542 — Outcome 11575617, $1,056
- 0x772a...e9b1 — Outcome 11575617, $1,000
- 0xc040...beac — Outcome 11575617, $1,000 (50% win rate)
- 0x5012...c4d9 — Outcome 11575617, $909
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US-Iran talks won't happen
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US-Iran meeting late June
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Hormuz blockade lifted mid-June
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Iran airspace stays open
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Russia won't capture Kupiansk
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