Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,774.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Cross-market diplomacy bettor
Wallet is expressing a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis across five related markets, though its long-term edge is modest.
- This wallet has placed about $90k across five related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader diplomacy thesis.
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 20¢ while the market is up 6 points today.
- The wallet is profitable over 404 resolved bets, with about $48k in lifetime gains.
$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Profitable cross-market geopolitics trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is unwinding a No position across a US-Iran diplomacy event, with market odds already moving toward Yes.
- This bettor has a long track record: 647 resolved trades, 61% wins, and $218K in lifetime profit.
- They have traded 7 related markets on this event with $52.9K total exposure, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- Selling No at 83¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 17¢, and Yes has already moved up 8 points today.
$3,863 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a long history is building a $52.7k same-event position, including $3.7k on No at 79¢.
- This bettor has a long track record: 647 resolved bets, 61% winners, and $220k lifetime profit.
- They are active across this event, with $52.7k spread over 7 related markets.
- Buying No at 79¢ suggests conviction that a US-Iran meeting is unlikely by the deadline.
$3,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Multi-market geopolitical bettor
Moderately interesting because a profitable high-volume trader is building a broader US-Iran thesis across five related markets, though their track record is not especially sharp.
- This trader has put $89.6K across five related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader diplomatic-risk thesis.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up $41.3K across more than $9.1M in invested volume.
- This entry backs No at 78¢, implying they think a US-Iran meeting remains unlikely despite active market volume.
$3,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
Cross-market diplomacy bettor
A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis across 5 related markets, with this trade effectively buying Yes at 22¢.
- This wallet has put $88k across 5 related US-Iran diplomacy markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The bettor is up $41.7k lifetime across 393 resolved markets, though their 51% win rate is not especially sharp.
- Selling No at 78¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 22¢, matching the market’s current price.
$1,891 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
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