Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether authorized representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting about US-Iran relations by June 3, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,891 in smart money exposure and 1 signal on this market, with recent activity flagged from a cross-market diplomacy bettor. The market resolves “Yes” if a qualifying direct diplomatic meeting occurs by the deadline, and “No” otherwise.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,891.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Cross-market diplomacy bettor

A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis across 5 related markets, with this trade effectively buying Yes at 22¢.

  • This wallet has put $88k across 5 related US-Iran diplomacy markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • The bettor is up $41.7k lifetime across 393 resolved markets, though their 51% win rate is not especially sharp.
  • Selling No at 78¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 22¢, matching the market’s current price.

$1,891 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $12,126 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x2c39...56dc No, $9,671 (56% win rate)
  3. 0x1521...f23e No, $5,379 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x8a98...1b92 Yes, $3,992 (52% win rate)
  5. 0x9d73...216b Yes, $3,000 (73% win rate)
  6. 0x9430...c2e6 Yes, $2,960
  7. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $2,000 (82% win rate)
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $1,922 (47% win rate)
  9. 0x3471...a9d4 No, $1,875 (100% win rate)
  10. 0xd426...334a Yes, $1,181 (41% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by late May

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Iran deal comes late 2026

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Iran keeps airspace open

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US-Iran talks happen mid-June

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Starmer exits in late May

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Hormuz lift before June

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MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin before June

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Iran won't surrender enriched uranium

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Ceasefire extended on May 16

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US won't obtain Iranian uranium

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?

5dUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$1,891 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
23¢
No
77¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
92¢
81¢
71¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?

2h ago

$1,891 on Yes at 22¢

22¢23¢1¢

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