What is this Trump Strait of Hormuz blockade prediction market about?

This market asks whether Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military will publicly and officially announce that the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by the deadline.

When does the Hormuz blockade market resolve?

The market resolves based on whether an official announcement ending the U.S. blockade is made by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

What would make the market resolve Yes?

It would resolve Yes if President Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military publicly and officially announces that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has ended before the deadline.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking?

PolySpotter is tracking $3,420 in smart money on this market, with 1 signal and recent alerts including profitable wallets moving into Yes, cross-market geopolitical bettors, and a perfect-record bettor flipping No.

Why does the Strait of Hormuz blockade matter for prediction markets?

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global oil shipping route, so any U.S. blockade or announcement ending it could affect geopolitics, energy markets, and trader expectations on Polymarket.

Part of: Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether President Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military will officially announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has ended by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $3,420 in smart money and 1 smart money signal, including recent activity from profitable and cross-market geopolitical bettors.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,086.

Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Middle East, Hormuz, Negotiation Topics

Notable Trades

Sharp cross-market bettor

Sharp wallet with an 81% resolved win rate and +$590k lifetime P&L is taking a contrarian No position as part of a large 9-market Hormuz thesis.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
They have put $169k across 9 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 19¢ goes against the market’s recent Yes move, implying they see meaningful mispricing.

$3,420 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable wallet is building a broader cross-market position around the Hormuz blockade event, buying Yes at 75¢ into strong market momentum.

This bettor is up about $187k lifetime and has placed $27k across 6 related markets.
They bought Yes at 75¢ before it moved to 80¢, catching a sharp 26-point one-day price jump.
The trade fits a broader Hormuz-blockade thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$1,137 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 37%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable 74% winner is building a cross-market Hormuz thesis, but the signal is moderate and the trade is currently below their entry.

This bettor has won 74% of 76 resolved bets and is up about $35.8K lifetime.
They have placed $8.2K across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader Hormuz blockade thesis.
This Yes entry was at 63¢, while the market is now around 58¢, offering a cheaper follow price than their fill.

$1,263 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Profitable wallets pile into YES

Four profitable wallets bought the same Yes direction during a 13.7x volume spike, with multiple wallets also positioning across related Strait of Hormuz markets.

Four profitable wallets put $11.2k on Yes in the same window.
Market volume spiked 13.7x above normal as the Yes price moved to 58¢.
Several wallets are also trading related markets, including one with $101.8k across 6 linked positions.

$11,196 on Yes

Event-wide geopolitical bettor

Wallet with a positive 80-bet history is building a broader six-market thesis on the same Hormuz blockade event, including a fresh Yes buy at 56¢.

This bettor is up $8.4K lifetime across 80 resolved bets and is adding to a broader event thesis.
They have placed about $102K across 6 related Hormuz markets, suggesting a committed view rather than a one-off trade.
Entry at 56¢ is slightly below the current 58–59¢ market, with odds moving up 4 points today.

$3,861 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

81% winner cross-market thesis

Proven profitable wallet with an 81% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a large 9-market event thesis.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $570k lifetime.
They have positioned across 9 related markets with $156k total exposure, suggesting a broader event thesis.
Buying No at 46¢ goes against the market’s 55% Yes price and follows a 14.5-point weekly drop.

$1,380 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Perfect-record bettor flips No

Sharp 14-0 wallet with positive P&L is adding a fresh No position after cross-market positioning across the same Hormuz event.

This bettor has won 14 of 14 resolved bets and is up $17.7K lifetime.
They have positioned across 5 related markets with $41K total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
Buying No at 46¢ after previously closing Yes signals a clear flip in view.

$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable cross-market thesis

Experienced profitable wallet is expressing a broad cross-market thesis with over $100K across six related event markets, though this specific trade is modest.

This bettor has deployed about $100K across 6 related markets, suggesting a coordinated view on the event.
The wallet is profitable lifetime, up $56K across more than $12.5M traded.
Buying No at 45¢ is aligned with the market’s recent move away from Yes, which is down 20 points this week.

$1,008 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%

Six-market geopolitical thesis

Wallet is building a sizeable cross-market geopolitical thesis, with $100k across 6 related markets, though its historical edge is modest.

This wallet has placed about $100k across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader event-level view.
The bettor is lifetime profitable, up about $51k across 484 resolved markets, though not a high-win-rate sharp.
This trade buys Yes at 62¢, implying confidence despite an already active $17k 24h market.

$1,116 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

Undefeated cross-market bettor

A 10-for-10 profitable wallet is building a broader $37k cross-market thesis across five related Hormuz blockade markets, making this Yes re-entry worth surfacing despite modest size.

This bettor is 10-for-10 on resolved trades and is profitable lifetime.
They have placed $37k across 5 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Bought Yes at 60¢, implying they still see value despite the market sitting near 57¢ now.

$1,105 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 75765302, $32,078 (82% win rate)
0xbb1f...907d — Outcome 75765302, $11,232 (100% win rate)
0xbbce...3da1 — Outcome 75765302, $10,000
0xa0e9...1f00 — Outcome 75765302, $7,238 (0% win rate)
0x34ab...3eb5 — Outcome 75765302, $6,224 (36% win rate)
0x0652...9134 — Outcome 75765302, $5,811 (70% win rate)
0x2e7a...29f6 — Outcome 75765302, $4,641 (58% win rate)
0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 75765302, $4,420 (72% win rate)
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 75765302, $4,000 (47% win rate)
0x8a4e...1ba4 — Outcome 75765302, $3,170 (45% win rate)

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

No Iran peace deal by July

Covers 6 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

28dTrump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?$30,086 tracked11 signalsStrait of HormuzGeopoliticsTrumpIran CeasefirePoliticsIranU.S. x IranMiddle EastHormuzNegotiation Topics

On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.

Notable Trades