Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by December 31, 2026, defined as IMF Portwatch reporting a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls for any date before the deadline. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,581 in smart money on this market, with a recent signal from a profitable macro bettor backing No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,823.

Categories: ships, Economy, Iran Ceasefire, transit, Iran, Politics, Hormuz, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

A profitable high-volume bettor with a long cross-market history is taking a contrarian No position at 24¢, though the trade size is modest.

  • This bettor has won 68% of 887 resolved trades and is up about $135K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 26 related event markets, showing a repeated event-driven betting pattern.
  • They bought No at 24¢ while the market has moved 5 points toward No over the last day.

$1,581 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable macro bettor backs NO

Three wallets are leaning No, led by a major profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.66M lifetime profit, making a coordinated directional bet against the 79% favorite.

  • A bettor up $1.66M lifetime is buying No and has traded across 80 related markets.
  • Three wallets put $5.4K on the same No view while the market still prices Yes around 79%.
  • The No entry near 20¢ implies a contrarian ~5x payoff if Hormuz traffic does not reach the threshold.

$5,374 on No

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market wallet with a long record is taking a contrarian No position on a geopolitics/shipping market.

  • This bettor is up $1.66M lifetime across 910 resolved bets.
  • They have traded 79 markets across 50 events, suggesting a repeat cross-market research edge.
  • Buying No at 20¢ goes against the 79% Yes consensus and offers a clear contrarian setup.

$2,868 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $14,000 (64% win rate)
  2. 0xe2b1...7d2a No, $8,598 (45% win rate)
  3. 0x709a...7e39 Yes, $8,377
  4. 0x0845...6b6f No, $7,354 (68% win rate)
  5. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $6,262 (47% win rate)
  6. 0xcaab...24dd Yes, $5,781 (78% win rate)
  7. 0x8f2f...b226 Yes, $5,520 (65% win rate)
  8. 0x28c3...da06 Yes, $5,000 (72% win rate)
  9. 0x3a8a...7699 Yes, $5,000 (89% win rate)
  10. 0x6d16...7228 No, $3,500 (64% win rate)

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

231dStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$9,823 tracked3 signalsshipsEconomyIran CeasefiretransitIranPoliticsHormuzGeopoliticsU.S. x IranStrait of Hormuz
Yes
78¢
No
23¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
84¢
75¢
67¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

7h ago

$1,581 on No at 24¢

24¢23¢1¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

19h ago

$5,374 on No at 20¢

20¢23¢3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

19h ago

$2,868 on No at 20¢

20¢23¢3¢

Related Theses