Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

This Polymarket market asks whether IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026. It covers reported arrivals of container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, and resolves Yes if the threshold is met on any qualifying date. PolySpotter is tracking $1,478 in smart money activity, including recent linked-wallet buying on No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

26 smart money signals detected, totaling $122,485.

Categories: ships, Economy, Iran Ceasefire, transit, Iran, Politics, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

97% winner buying YES

A high-win-rate wallet with positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes despite only a weak new-wallet repeat signal.

  • This bettor has won 97% of resolved trades and is up $10.3K lifetime.
  • They are buying Yes at 82¢ after the market fell 6% this week.
  • The wallet has been flagged 7 times historically, suggesting repeat notable activity.

$1,478 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

7-wallet funded cluster

A wallet from a 7-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the single trade is modest relative to market liquidity.

  • A 7-wallet group sharing the same funder is positioned around this market.
  • This wallet is adding to an existing No bet, now with about $19.2k committed at roughly 40–42¢.
  • The market has moved toward No recently, with Yes down 4 points today and 7 points this week.

$1,540 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

7-wallet funded cluster

A wallet from a 7-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the single trade is modest relative to market liquidity.

  • A 7-wallet group sharing the same funder is positioned around this market.
  • This wallet is adding to an existing No bet, now with about $19.2k committed at roughly 40–42¢.
  • The market has moved toward No recently, with Yes down 4 points today and 7 points this week.

$3,304 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Proven cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
  • They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.

$1,092 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Proven cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
  • They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.

$2,870 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

97% winner buying YES

A high-win-rate wallet with positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes despite only a weak new-wallet repeat signal.

  • This bettor has won 97% of resolved trades and is up $10.3K lifetime.
  • They are buying Yes at 82¢ after the market fell 6% this week.
  • The wallet has been flagged 7 times historically, suggesting repeat notable activity.

$1,640 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

Profitable wallets adding to NO

Three profitable, high-volume wallets are leaning No, with two of them adding to already sizable No positions on a geopolitically sensitive market.

  • Three wallets put $7.1K behind No in the same short window.
  • Two of the bettors are adding to existing No positions worth over $115K combined.
  • The lead wallet has 887 resolved trades and is up $72K lifetime.

$38,170 on No

90% win-rate serial trader

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and +$334k P&L bought $8k of No at 19¢.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $334k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 39 events with $316k in cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven approach.
  • The $8k No buy at 19¢ goes against the market’s 80% Yes pricing and offers about 5x payout if right.

$8,045 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Proven winner re-enters YES

Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win record and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market already trading at 81¢.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $19.7k lifetime.
  • They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying back in at 81¢.
  • The market has strong recent momentum, with Yes up 7.5 points in the past day.

$2,962 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

Proven cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
  • They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.

$2,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6139...6b7a No, $416,382 (71% win rate)
  2. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $195,772 (64% win rate)
  3. 0xce1d...1b9b Yes, $115,000 (61% win rate)
  4. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $102,638 (69% win rate)
  5. 0x1a3f...6dea No, $83,494 (47% win rate)
  6. 0xe234...304a No, $65,091 (68% win rate)
  7. 0x801d...d8e0 Yes, $61,347 (72% win rate)
  8. 0xe472...e7eb Yes, $57,334 (82% win rate)
  9. 0x9c26...74bc Yes, $45,000 (93% win rate)
  10. 0x32d9...d638 No, $42,005

Related Theses

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Iran peace deal won’t happen

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Iran deal in early June

Covers 9 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran peace deal comes early

Covers 11 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

165dStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$122,485 tracked26 signalsshipsEconomyIran CeasefiretransitIranPoliticsHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzU.S. x Iran
Yes
53¢
No
48¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
69¢
60¢
50¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

2d ago

$1,478 on Yes at 82¢

82¢53¢29¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

4d ago

$1,540 on No at 42¢

42¢48¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

4d ago

$3,304 on No at 42¢

42¢48¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

8d ago

$1,092 on No at 11¢

11¢48¢37¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

9d ago

$2,870 on No at 11¢

11¢48¢37¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

16d ago

$1,640 on Yes at 82¢

82¢53¢29¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

1d ago

$38,170 on No at 36¢

36¢48¢12¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

17d ago

$8,045 on No at 19¢

19¢48¢29¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

19d ago

$2,962 on Yes at 81¢

81¢53¢28¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

26d ago

$2,600 on No at 11¢

11¢48¢37¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

27d ago

$1,080 on No at 11¢

11¢48¢37¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

28d ago

$6,367 on No at 11¢

11¢48¢37¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

28d ago

$7,161 on Yes at 81¢

81¢53¢28¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

28d ago

$4,781 on Yes at 81¢

81¢53¢28¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

28d ago

$2,610 on Yes at 81¢

81¢53¢28¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

29d ago

$2,984 on No at 11¢

11¢48¢37¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

29d ago

$1,320 on No at 11¢

11¢48¢37¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

32d ago

$2,670 on No at 11¢

11¢48¢37¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

35d ago

$2,355 on Yes at 80¢

80¢53¢27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

35d ago

$1,024 on Yes at 81¢

81¢53¢28¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

35d ago

$2,151 on Yes at 80¢

80¢53¢27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

36d ago

$1,987 on Yes at 79¢

79¢53¢26¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

43d ago

$11,956 on Yes at 75¢

75¢53¢22¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

66d ago

$1,581 on No at 24¢

24¢48¢24¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

23d ago

$5,890 on No at 11¢

11¢48¢37¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

66d ago

$2,868 on No at 20¢

20¢48¢28¢

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