Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

21 smart money signals detected, totaling $70,418.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is taking a coordinated No view across four related Iran markets, with this entry already moving from 90¢ to 94¢.

  • This bettor is up $1.16M lifetime and has placed $20.8K across four related markets.
  • They are backing No here at 90¢, and the market has already moved to 94¢.
  • The trade fits a broader thesis that no qualifying U.S.-Iran ceasefire or agreement announcement will arrive by the deadline.

$2,010 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%

3-day wallet reloading No

A 3-day-old repeat large bettor is re-entering No on a geopolitics market after $30.9k in recent flagged bets, with the position already moving from 74¢ to 78¢.

  • This 3-day-old wallet has already made 9 notable large bets totaling $30.9k.
  • The bettor is re-entering No after a prior $5.3k No position, suggesting continued conviction.
  • They bought No at 74¢ and the market has already moved to about 78¢.

$1,892 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a broader Iran-event thesis by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

  • This bettor is up $226k lifetime across 168 resolved bets.
  • They have traded 97 markets across 43 events, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy.
  • This is part of a larger $36.8k position across 7 related markets.

$2,771 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Four-wallet geopolitical Yes cluster

Four wallets are aligned on Yes in a geopolitics market that has already moved sharply upward, with several traders showing broad cross-market positioning and positive lifetime P&L.

  • Four wallets put $12.2K on Yes, all in the same direction.
  • The market is already up 17.5 points today, so this flow is joining strong momentum.
  • Several wallets have broad cross-market history, including one up $226K lifetime across 168 resolved bets.

$12,170 on Yes

85% serial cross-market bettor

High-composite alert with an 85% serial cross-market trader buying No alongside one-sided flow and a major volume spike on a geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has won 85% of resolved trades and has bet across 27 events.
  • Four wallets are all buying No, totaling nearly $30K in the same direction.
  • Market volume is surging 14.8x above normal, with Yes up 17.5 points today.

$11,586 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

New wallet flips NO

A 21-hour-old active wallet with early profits flipped from Yes to No and bought near resolution on a geopolitics market.

  • This 21-hour-old wallet already has 5 positions and is slightly profitable on $17k invested.
  • It closed a Yes position and then bought No at 90¢, suggesting a fresh late flip rather than passive holding.
  • The trade came about 53 minutes before resolution on a news-driven market where late information matters.

$2,085 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Perfect-record cross-market bettor

Sharp wallet override: a perfect 32-0 bettor with +$334k P&L is buying No as part of a $106k cross-market thesis across seven related Iran markets.

  • This bettor has won 32 of 32 resolved bets and is up $334k lifetime.
  • They have put $106k across 7 related markets, showing a clear broader thesis.
  • Buying No at 90¢ is a high-confidence position that this announcement will not happen by the deadline.

$1,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

New wallet Iran thesis

A 3-day-old wallet is repeatedly deploying meaningful size on the same geopolitical thesis, effectively buying Yes at 14¢ despite the market pricing it near 10¢.

  • This 3-day-old wallet has already had 7 large-bet alerts totaling about $27k.
  • The trade is effectively a Yes buy at 14¢, taking the contrarian side against a 90% No market.
  • The same wallet has $11k across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$4,598 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Cross-market Iran thesis

A high-volume political trader is expressing a cross-market Iran thesis, but the edge is moderate rather than proven sharp.

  • This bettor has placed $206K across 12 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
  • The wallet is profitable overall, up $42.6K across nearly $9.0M invested.
  • Selling No at 87¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 13¢, a low-priced bet on a qualifying announcement.

$2,373 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%

76% cross-market bettor

A profitable 76% winner is building a broader cross-market No thesis across six related Iran-ceasefire markets with $46k total exposure.

  • This bettor has won 76% of resolved trades and is up about $6.8k lifetime.
  • They have positioned across 6 related markets with $46k total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought No at 82¢ and the market has already moved to 86¢, giving early confirmation.

$1,573 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Top Holders

  1. 0x134a...9e42 Outcome 47612883, $128,318 (88% win rate)
  2. 0x6bab...1292 Outcome 47612883, $50,245 (58% win rate)
  3. 0x1c12...79d9 Outcome 47612883, $44,950 (17% win rate)
  4. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 47612883, $34,841 (58% win rate)
  5. 0x4def...f8e8 Outcome 47612883, $30,195
  6. 0x96f9...1d08 Outcome 47612883, $30,000 (73% win rate)
  7. 0xbacd...ab35 Outcome 47612883, $29,351 (48% win rate)
  8. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 47612883, $25,113 (82% win rate)
  9. 0x0562...9d66 Outcome 47612883, $20,000 (41% win rate)
  10. 0xc84f...e0c5 Outcome 47612883, $17,035 (89% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 7 related markets

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Covers 11 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

No Iran deal by May 31

Covers 6 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

No permanent Iran peace deal

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal comes in June

Covers 5 related markets

No Iran peace deal by June

Covers 6 related markets

No Iran deal soon

Covers 7 related markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

ResolvedUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$70,418 tracked21 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Price History — “No
102¢
84¢
66¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

1d ago

$2,010 on No at 90¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

1d ago

$1,892 on No at 74¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

1d ago

$2,771 on No at 77¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

1d ago

$12,170 on Yes at 28¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

1d ago

$11,586 on No at 76¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

1d ago

$2,085 on No at 90¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

1d ago

$1,128 on No at 90¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

1d ago

$4,598 on Yes at 14¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

2d ago

$2,373 on Yes at 13¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

2d ago

$1,573 on No at 82¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

2d ago

$5,742 on Yes at 12¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

2d ago

$1,980 on No at 90¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

1d ago

$3,991 on Yes at 20¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

2d ago

$1,800 on No at 90¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

2d ago

$1,418 on No at 88¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

3d ago

$1,987 on No at 83¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

3d ago

$3,300 on No at 81¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

3d ago

$1,021 on No at 82¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

3d ago

$1,345 on No at 76¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

3d ago

$1,649 on No at 74¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

3d ago

$4,000 on No at 75¢

Related Theses