Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
21 smart money signals detected, totaling $70,418.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is taking a coordinated No view across four related Iran markets, with this entry already moving from 90¢ to 94¢.
- This bettor is up $1.16M lifetime and has placed $20.8K across four related markets.
- They are backing No here at 90¢, and the market has already moved to 94¢.
- The trade fits a broader thesis that no qualifying U.S.-Iran ceasefire or agreement announcement will arrive by the deadline.
$2,010 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
3-day wallet reloading No
A 3-day-old repeat large bettor is re-entering No on a geopolitics market after $30.9k in recent flagged bets, with the position already moving from 74¢ to 78¢.
- This 3-day-old wallet has already made 9 notable large bets totaling $30.9k.
- The bettor is re-entering No after a prior $5.3k No position, suggesting continued conviction.
- They bought No at 74¢ and the market has already moved to about 78¢.
$1,892 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a broader Iran-event thesis by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.
- This bettor is up $226k lifetime across 168 resolved bets.
- They have traded 97 markets across 43 events, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy.
- This is part of a larger $36.8k position across 7 related markets.
$2,771 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Four-wallet geopolitical Yes cluster
Four wallets are aligned on Yes in a geopolitics market that has already moved sharply upward, with several traders showing broad cross-market positioning and positive lifetime P&L.
- Four wallets put $12.2K on Yes, all in the same direction.
- The market is already up 17.5 points today, so this flow is joining strong momentum.
- Several wallets have broad cross-market history, including one up $226K lifetime across 168 resolved bets.
$12,170 on Yes
85% serial cross-market bettor
High-composite alert with an 85% serial cross-market trader buying No alongside one-sided flow and a major volume spike on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 85% of resolved trades and has bet across 27 events.
- Four wallets are all buying No, totaling nearly $30K in the same direction.
- Market volume is surging 14.8x above normal, with Yes up 17.5 points today.
$11,586 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
New wallet flips NO
A 21-hour-old active wallet with early profits flipped from Yes to No and bought near resolution on a geopolitics market.
- This 21-hour-old wallet already has 5 positions and is slightly profitable on $17k invested.
- It closed a Yes position and then bought No at 90¢, suggesting a fresh late flip rather than passive holding.
- The trade came about 53 minutes before resolution on a news-driven market where late information matters.
$2,085 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Perfect-record cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet override: a perfect 32-0 bettor with +$334k P&L is buying No as part of a $106k cross-market thesis across seven related Iran markets.
- This bettor has won 32 of 32 resolved bets and is up $334k lifetime.
- They have put $106k across 7 related markets, showing a clear broader thesis.
- Buying No at 90¢ is a high-confidence position that this announcement will not happen by the deadline.
$1,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
New wallet Iran thesis
A 3-day-old wallet is repeatedly deploying meaningful size on the same geopolitical thesis, effectively buying Yes at 14¢ despite the market pricing it near 10¢.
- This 3-day-old wallet has already had 7 large-bet alerts totaling about $27k.
- The trade is effectively a Yes buy at 14¢, taking the contrarian side against a 90% No market.
- The same wallet has $11k across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$4,598 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Cross-market Iran thesis
A high-volume political trader is expressing a cross-market Iran thesis, but the edge is moderate rather than proven sharp.
- This bettor has placed $206K across 12 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up $42.6K across nearly $9.0M invested.
- Selling No at 87¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 13¢, a low-priced bet on a qualifying announcement.
$2,373 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%
76% cross-market bettor
A profitable 76% winner is building a broader cross-market No thesis across six related Iran-ceasefire markets with $46k total exposure.
- This bettor has won 76% of resolved trades and is up about $6.8k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 6 related markets with $46k total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 82¢ and the market has already moved to 86¢, giving early confirmation.
$1,573 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Top Holders
- 0x134a...9e42 — Outcome 47612883, $128,318 (88% win rate)
- 0x6bab...1292 — Outcome 47612883, $50,245 (58% win rate)
- 0x1c12...79d9 — Outcome 47612883, $44,950 (17% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 47612883, $34,841 (58% win rate)
- 0x4def...f8e8 — Outcome 47612883, $30,195
- 0x96f9...1d08 — Outcome 47612883, $30,000 (73% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Outcome 47612883, $29,351 (48% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 47612883, $25,113 (82% win rate)
- 0x0562...9d66 — Outcome 47612883, $20,000 (41% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Outcome 47612883, $17,035 (89% win rate)
Related Theses
No Iran deal by May 31
Covers 6 related markets
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 7 related markets
No permanent Iran peace deal
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal comes in June
Covers 5 related markets
No Iran peace deal by June
Covers 6 related markets
No Iran deal soon
Covers 7 related markets
