Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?

This prediction market asks whether the next formal senior-level diplomatic meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives will begin by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market follows reported progress toward a potential U.S.-Iran deal, with $3,119 in tracked smart money and recent activity on both the Yes and No sides; the market resolves on April 1, 2027.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,839.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting, meet, Diplomatic meeting

Notable Trades

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly profitable, proven trader is taking a contrarian No position after building a broad thesis across six related markets.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 356 resolved trades and is up $945,280 lifetime.
  • The wallet has positioned across six markets in this event, with $41,322 committed and a 76% historical win rate.
  • The No entry at 35¢ is near the current 36¢ market price, while Yes has fallen 8% over the past week.

$3,119 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Serial trader scaling into Yes

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 80% win rate added $2,720 to an existing Yes position in a relatively thin market, signaling meaningful conviction despite limited proven price edge.

  • This bettor has won 80% of 313 resolved trades and is active across 35 events.
  • They added $2,720 to an existing $6,214 Yes position, bringing their exposure to roughly $9,000.
  • The market is relatively thin, with these trades representing more than the reported recent volume and covering five markets in the same event.

$2,720 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9d84...1344 — No, $17,665 (44% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $14,028 (76% win rate)
  3. 0x0845...6b6f — No, $11,899 (70% win rate)
  4. 0x6978...08d8 — No, $3,772 (49% win rate)
  5. 0x4ae7...561f — No, $1,665
  6. 0xd5db...3c45 — No, $1,600 (50% win rate)
  7. 0x43b9...5db9 — No, $1,363 (86% win rate)
  8. 0x3879...d8c3 — No, $1,000
  9. 0x56c2...6219 — No, $1,000
  10. 0xc5bd...ceaa — No, $666 (63% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 10 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal unlikely soon

Covers 9 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$5,839 tracked2 signalsPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran CeasefiremeetingmeetDiplomatic meeting
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?

2026-08-27 16:32 UTC

$3,119 on No at 35¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?

2026-08-22 05:29 UTC

$2,720 on Yes at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

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Iran deal by mid-June
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Hormuz blockade persists
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran deal unlikely soon
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Calendar arbitrage on talks
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