Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?

This prediction market asks whether the next formal senior-level diplomatic meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives will begin by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes only if that qualifying round starts by the deadline; technical talks or informal contacts may not count. PolySpotter tracks smart money activity, including a recent trader scaling into Yes.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,720.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting, meet, Diplomatic meeting

Notable Trades

Serial trader scaling into Yes

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 80% win rate added $2,720 to an existing Yes position in a relatively thin market, signaling meaningful conviction despite limited proven price edge.

  • This bettor has won 80% of 313 resolved trades and is active across 35 events.
  • They added $2,720 to an existing $6,214 Yes position, bringing their exposure to roughly $9,000.
  • The market is relatively thin, with these trades representing more than the reported recent volume and covering five markets in the same event.

$2,720 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbf4d...33ed Yes, $9,448 (80% win rate)
  2. 0xe958...66b7 No, $5,000 (66% win rate)
  3. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $4,069 (48% win rate)
  4. 0x60a9...5a71 No, $3,946 (49% win rate)
  5. 0xa8c6...44e8 Yes, $2,987 (67% win rate)
  6. 0xff7c...b233 No, $2,859 (52% win rate)
  7. 0x9ad0...bf3d Yes, $2,817 (66% win rate)
  8. 0x9d84...1344 No, $2,665 (43% win rate)
  9. 0x21ff...0d71 Yes, $1,951
  10. 0x1cfc...2111 Yes, $1,428

Related Theses

Iran deal unlikely soon

Covers 9 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 10 related markets

Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 5 related markets

Iran talks won’t happen

Covers 16 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays in place

Covers 8 related markets

US announces blockade end August 7

Covers 5 related markets

Iran talks come later in 2026

Covers 6 related markets

Trump unfreezes assets only

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Iran oil relief won’t return

Covers 1 related market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?

219dNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$2,720 tracked1 signalPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran CeasefiremeetingmeetDiplomatic meeting
Yes
66¢
No
35¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
89¢
74¢
58¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?

1d ago

$2,720 on Yes at 62¢

62¢66¢4¢

Related Theses

Iran deal unlikely soon
Wallet_0xbf4d2 trades 9 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
No US-Iran peace deal
Wallet_0xbf4d2 trades 10 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
Wallet_0xbf4d2 trades 5 related markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
Iran talks won’t happen
Wallet_0xbf4d2 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Hormuz blockade stays in place
Wallet_0xbf4d2 trades 8 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
US announces blockade end August 7
Wallet_0xbf4d2 trades 5 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Iran talks come later in 2026
Wallet_0xbf4d2 trades 6 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Trump unfreezes assets only
Wallet_0xbf4d2 trades 3 related markets
Will Trump agree to Iranian oi…Will Trump agree to unfreeze I…Will Trump agree to Iranian en…
Wallet_0xbf4d2 trades 2 related markets
Will Israel conduct military a…Will Israel conduct military a…
Iran oil relief won’t return
Wallet_0xbf4d2 trades 1 related market
US reissues Iran oil sanction …