Part of: Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

This prediction market asks whether the next official diplomatic meeting between U.S. and Iranian government representatives will take place in Pakistan by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter tracks live Polymarket pricing plus smart-money activity, including $2,348 in tracked sharp positioning and 1 recent smart-money signal.

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”. For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”. If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”. If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,599.

Categories: Politics, Foreign Policy, U.S. x Iran, Nuclear, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Iran Ceasefire, Trump, nuclear deal, Israel x Iran, Vance, rewards 100, 4.5, 100, Rewards 300 4.5 50

Notable Trades

82% sharp cross-market bettor

A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history is opening a fresh Yes position on Pakistan at 47¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $510K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with nearly $2.0M deployed across 131 related markets.
  • This is a fresh Yes buy at 47¢ after the market fell 13 points in the past day.

$2,348 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp serial cross-market bettor

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate and $457k lifetime profit bought Yes after a major price move.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $457k lifetime.
  • They have traded 118 markets across 47 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • They bought Yes at 66¢ after the market jumped 26 points in a day.

$2,660 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

94% win-rate macro bettor

A very high-win-rate serial cross-market trader sold this outcome at 89¢ before it dropped to 77¢, signaling a sharp bettor exiting an overpriced line.

  • This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades across 139 bets and has traded nearly $2.9M across 69 events
  • They sold at 89¢ and the market is now 77¢, so the move already went their way by 12 points
  • This is a fresh cross-market thesis from a wallet with a strong history in geopolitics-style event markets

$1,543 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

12-wallet geopolitical cluster

A proven 76% win-rate wallet from a 12-wallet linked cluster bought early at 77¢ in a thin geopolitical market that has already moved to 87%, suggesting coordinated conviction with good timing.

  • This wallet wins 76% of its bets across 263 resolved markets and bought before the price jumped from 77¢ to 87¢
  • 12 linked wallets share the same funder, which points to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off trade
  • The market is still fairly thin at $13k volume, so a $2k buy moving into an 87¢ market is worth watching

$2,048 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $123,398
  2. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $14,286 (49% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $14,228 (82% win rate)
  4. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $14,130 (54% win rate)
  5. 0x1d55...f488 Yes, $12,028 (100% win rate)
  6. 0x3069...83cd Yes, $5,256 (43% win rate)
  7. 0xe617...f251 Yes, $5,223 (95% win rate)
  8. 0x3690...e16f Yes, $4,356
  9. 0x6967...1986 Yes, $3,837 (49% win rate)
  10. 0xa313...eb44 Yes, $3,656 (78% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by late May

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Iran closes airspace in June

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No Iran peace deal in 2026

Covers 10 related markets

No Iran meeting soon

Covers 14 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

32dWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?$8,599 tracked4 signalsPoliticsForeign PolicyU.S. x IranNuclearGeopoliticsIranKhameneiIran CeasefireTrumpnuclear dealIsrael x IranVancerewards 100, 4.5, 100Rewards 300 4.5 50
Yes
48¢
No
52¢

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”. For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”. If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”. If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
68¢
50¢
32¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

2d ago

$2,348 on Yes at 47¢

47¢48¢1¢

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

4d ago

$2,660 on Yes at 66¢

66¢48¢18¢

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

37d ago

$1,543 on No at 11¢

11¢52¢41¢

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

45d ago

$2,048 on Yes at 77¢

77¢48¢29¢

Related Theses