Part of: Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $25,339.
Categories: Politics, Foreign Policy, U.S. x Iran, Nuclear, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Iran Ceasefire, Trump, nuclear deal, Israel x Iran, Vance, rewards 100, 4.5, 100, Rewards 300 4.5 50
Notable Trades
Profitable diplomacy specialist
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is effectively buying Yes on a diplomatic market, with a $6k trade that was large relative to recent volume.
- This bettor has made $1.18M lifetime profit across 949 resolved markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with nearly $4.9M deployed across 100 related markets.
- Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢, and the market is now around 14¢.
$6,014 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable serial cross-market whale
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor placed a $10.7k No bet that nearly matches the market's 24h volume on a plausible information-edge diplomatic market.
- This bettor is up $1.18M lifetime across 946 resolved trades.
- They have traded 97 markets across 57 events, with $4.8M total deployed.
- The $10.7k No buy was 85% of the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction at 86¢.
$10,726 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
82% sharp cross-market bettor
A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history is opening a fresh Yes position on Pakistan at 47¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $510K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with nearly $2.0M deployed across 131 related markets.
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 47¢ after the market fell 13 points in the past day.
$2,348 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate and $457k lifetime profit bought Yes after a major price move.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $457k lifetime.
- They have traded 118 markets across 47 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- They bought Yes at 66¢ after the market jumped 26 points in a day.
$2,660 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
94% win-rate macro bettor
A very high-win-rate serial cross-market trader sold this outcome at 89¢ before it dropped to 77¢, signaling a sharp bettor exiting an overpriced line.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades across 139 bets and has traded nearly $2.9M across 69 events
- They sold at 89¢ and the market is now 77¢, so the move already went their way by 12 points
- This is a fresh cross-market thesis from a wallet with a strong history in geopolitics-style event markets
$1,543 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
12-wallet geopolitical cluster
A proven 76% win-rate wallet from a 12-wallet linked cluster bought early at 77¢ in a thin geopolitical market that has already moved to 87%, suggesting coordinated conviction with good timing.
- This wallet wins 76% of its bets across 263 resolved markets and bought before the price jumped from 77¢ to 87¢
- 12 linked wallets share the same funder, which points to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off trade
- The market is still fairly thin at $13k volume, so a $2k buy moving into an 87¢ market is worth watching
$2,048 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 54017772, $374,757
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 10498594, $76,308 (76% win rate)
- 0x43cb...84df — Outcome 10498594, $20,999
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 10498594, $8,925 (69% win rate)
- 0x5874...6b11 — Outcome 10498594, $8,840 (74% win rate)
- 0x4c2d...f8ae — Outcome 10498594, $4,450 (42% win rate)
- 0x6967...1986 — Outcome 10498594, $3,837 (60% win rate)
- 0x50d2...5c8b — Outcome 10498594, $3,528
- 0x8072...0ef3 — Outcome 10498594, $3,245 (40% win rate)
- 0x8b72...6dbe — Outcome 10498594, $2,390 (48% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran peace deal by June
Covers 7 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
