Part of: Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
This prediction market asks whether the next official diplomatic meeting between U.S. and Iranian government representatives will take place in Switzerland by June 30, 2026. It covers direct, authorized diplomatic engagement on US-Iran relations, with resolution based on the country where that next qualifying meeting occurs. PolySpotter currently tracks $3,678 in smart money activity, including one recent signal: an 11-wallet cluster fading Yes.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”. For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”. If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”. If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,678.
Categories: Politics, Foreign Policy, U.S. x Iran, Nuclear, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Iran Ceasefire, Trump, nuclear deal, Israel x Iran, Vance, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
11-wallet cluster fading Yes
An 11-wallet funded cluster is fading Switzerland by selling Yes, with enough size to create a major price break on a geopolitics market where informed positioning is plausible.
- 11 linked wallets share the same funder and are taking the same anti-Switzerland side.
- The trade sold Yes at 29¢, equivalent to buying No at 71¢.
- This flow helped push Yes sharply below its prior range, despite strong recent market volume.
$3,678 on No | Wallet win rate: 19%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $135,267
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $14,479 (63% win rate)
- 0xdf90...41f0 — Yes, $11,896 (51% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — Yes, $7,216 (62% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $6,549 (42% win rate)
- 0x1d55...f488 — Yes, $6,000 (100% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $5,436
- 0x5a21...9318 — Yes, $5,032 (46% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $4,769 (48% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $3,698 (81% win rate)
